What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 21 March 2024?

Started Dec 01, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 21, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Mortgage rates fell from multi-decade highs in November 2023 and are expected to fall as expectations of additional interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve recede (Yahoo). The question will be suspended 20 March 2024 and the outcome determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 16 November 2023, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 7.44%.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Higher than 6.70% but lower than 7.10%" with a closing date of 21 March 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 5.50% 0%
Between 5.50% and 5.90%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 5.90% but lower than 6.30% 0%
Between 6.30% and 6.70%, inclusive 22%
Higher than 6.70% but lower than 7.10% 74%
Between 7.10% and 7.50%, inclusive 4%
More than 7.50% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 421
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.191
2.
-0.189
4.
-0.12

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username