Before 11 March 2024, will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?

Started Dec 11, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 11, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Israel's offensive in Gaza moves south toward the Egypt-Gaza border, concerns grow and contingencies are considered for a potential refugee crisis (Axios, i24, US News & World Report). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations, employees of specific organizations, family members of particular persons) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count, and allowing refugees from Gaza who entered Egypt without authorization to stay or go on to another location would not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 11 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 115
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 312
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 464
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.032929
3.
-0.032729
4.
-0.031205

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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