Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2025?

Started Dec 13, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Over three years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (AP, US Institute of Peace, International Crisis Group). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.11% +0.02% +0.02% -0.82%
No 96.89% -0.02% -0.02% +0.82%

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