Over three years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain (AP, US Institute of Peace, International Crisis Group). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.