Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 15 March 2024?

Started Dec 15, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As fighting in Gaza continues, Israel remains concerned about a potential second front opening to the north by Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (US News & World Report, Al-Monitor, Jewish Press). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 233
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 180
Number of Forecasts 737
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 465
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.058
2.
-0.058
3.
-0.058
4.
-0.058
5.
-0.057

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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