In Murthy v. Missouri, will the Supreme Court rule that any of the federal government's actions regarding social media content moderation violated the First Amendment?

Started Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 26, 2024 02:00PM UTC

The Attorneys General of Louisiana and Missouri sued the federal government in 2022 claiming that different federal agencies were exerting unconstitutional influence over content moderation actions by various social media companies (KOMU, Oyez). After a Louisiana district court imposed a broad injunction against several agencies preventing them from contacting social media companies, the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals limited the reach of that injunction, and the Biden administration appealed to the Supreme Court (The Verge, AP, SCOTUSblog). The Supreme Court is expected to hand down its decision in its 2023 term, but if it does not, the question will close as "No." If the Court decides this case without addressing this question's particular issue of law, the question will close as "No." A ruling that any particular action violated the First Amendment would count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 26 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 10%
No 90%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 202
Number of Forecasts 117
Average for questions older than 6 months: 574
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.464975
2.
-0.455447
3.
-0.401071
4.
-0.359975
5.
-0.355746

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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