Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) indicate provisional measures for Israel to suspend its military operations in the Gaza Strip before 30 March 2024?

Started Jan 12, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 11-12 January 2024, the ICJ heard arguments in South Africa's case against Israel for committing genocide in the Gaza Strip and requesting that Israel "immediately suspend its military operations in and against Gaza" (AP, BBC, ICJ - Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel)). A provisional ruling is expected in the weeks following the hearing (Al Jazeera). An example of the ICJ indicating (i.e., ruling/ordering) on provisional measures took place in March 2022, when it indicated that Russia "suspend the military operations that it commenced on 24 February 2022 in the territory of Ukraine" (ICJ - Ukraine v. Russian Federation, see §81 & §86). Provisional measures that stop short of an outright suspension of military operations in all of the Gaza Strip will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 March 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2%
No 98%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 92
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 244
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063862
2.
-0.063862
3.
-0.057579
4.
-0.054076
5.
-0.054076

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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