goddenjon asks:
How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from January 2024 through June 2024 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The continued influx of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico has become a major issue in the 2024 US presidential campaign (ABC7 Chicago, ABC News, Fox News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the calendar months of January 2024 through June 2024 once data for June 2024 are first reported (CBP). Between calendar January 2023 and June 2023, CBP reported a total of 1,070,475 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question.
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The question closed "More than 950,000 but fewer than 1,100,000" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 800,000 | 0% | |
| Between 800,000 and 950,000, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than 950,000 but fewer than 1,100,000 | 69% | |
| Between 1,100,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive | 23% | |
| More than 1,250,000 but fewer than 1,400,000 | 5% | |
| Between 1,400,000 and 1,550,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 1,550,000 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 39 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 242 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
