When will US legislation appropriating at least $1 billion of new funding for government and/or military assistance to Ukraine become law?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 19, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As the Biden Administration along with House and Senate leadership continue to negotiate for new appropriation bills, including new support for Ukraine, none has come as the Pentagon stated in early January 2024 that it was "out of money" for Ukraine (Defense News, ABC News, AP). Legislation that only extends preexisting funding for Ukraine (e.g., a continuing resolution without new funding) would not count (Government Accountability Office, Congressional Research Service).

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NOTE 6 February 2024: So long as funding is characterized as for Ukraine, whether the assistance is direct (e.g., a check sent to Kyiv) or indirect (e.g., replenishing inventories of weapons and equipment that had been sent to Ukraine) is immaterial.


The question closed "Not before 19 April 2024" with a closing date of 19 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 19 February 2024 0%
Between 19 February 2024 and 18 March 2024 0%
Between 19 March 2024 and 18 April 2024 5%
Not before 19 April 2024 95%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 63
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 177
Number of Forecasts 356
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 457
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.157054
2.
-0.154483
3.
-0.152671
4.
-0.144801
5.
-0.143318

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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