Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.

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NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.

NOTE 5 June 2024: A group merger must occur before the first day of European Parliamentary elections for the successor group seat wins to count.


The question closed "Fewer than 60" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 60 2%
Between 60 and 69 66%
Between 70 and 79 29%
Between 80 and 89 1%
Between 90 and 99 0%
Between 100 and 109 0%
Between 110 and 119 0%
More than 119 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 201
Number of Forecasts 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 573
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.706661
2.
-0.70373
3.
-0.669619
5.
-0.096846

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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