Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closing Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.
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NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 60 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |
| Between 60 and 69 | 0.20% | 0% | -0.10% | -1.10% |
| Between 70 and 79 | 15.30% | +0.40% | +0.70% | +0.10% |
| Between 80 and 89 | 59.90% | -0.20% | +0.40% | +5.50% |
| Between 90 and 99 | 24.00% | -0.20% | -0.80% | -2.10% |
| Between 100 and 109 | 0.60% | 0% | -0.20% | -1.70% |
| Between 110 and 119 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.50% |
| More than 119 | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.10% |