Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

How many seats will the Identity & Democracy Group (ID) win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jun 06, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The ID is a right-wing, Euroskeptic political group (i.e., party) in the EP, which polls indicate is set to gain seats in the June 2024 elections (Guardian, US News & World Report, Identity and Democracy Group, European Parliament - Political Groups, Politico - Poll of Polls). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. The question will be suspended on 5 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024 (European Parliament). There are a total of 720 seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament). The outcome will be determined on the day of the first meeting of the Tenth European Parliament.

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NOTE 27 January 2024: If the ID merges with another EU political group, then seats for the successor group would count.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 60 5.30% -2.20% -0.70% +5.30%
Between 60 and 69 66.80% +3.80% +55.50% +66.60%
Between 70 and 79 25.10% -1.60% +7.00% +11.20%
Between 80 and 89 2.10% 0% -46.00% -59.70%
Between 90 and 99 0.70% 0% -14.40% -22.80%
Between 100 and 109 0% 0% -1.30% -0.60%
Between 110 and 119 0% 0% -0.10% 0%
More than 119 0% 0% 0% 0%

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