India banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July 2023 as part of an effort to rein in food prices in the country, and they are expected by observers to stay in place through India's spring election cycle (CNBC, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, MSN, The Wire (India), Economic Times). A general lifting of the ban would count, irrespective of whether it is replaced by quotas or tariffs. Special exceptions to the ban (e.g., allowing the export of limited amounts of white rice for a specific destination) alone would not count, and the lifting of the ban must occur during the question's open period to count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 8 February 2024: India lifting its ban on exporting broken rice, which was already in place when its ban on exporting non-basmati white rice went into effect, will not count.