Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will India lift its ban on the export of white rice from the country before 2 July 2024?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 02, 2024 07:01AM UTC

India banned exports of non-basmati white rice in July 2023 as part of an effort to rein in food prices in the country, and they are expected by observers to stay in place through India's spring election cycle (CNBC, Ministry of Consumer Affairs, MSN, The Wire (India), Economic Times). A general lifting of the ban would count, irrespective of whether it is replaced by quotas or tariffs. Special exceptions to the ban (e.g., allowing the export of limited amounts of white rice for a specific destination) alone would not count, and the lifting of the ban must occur during the question's open period to count.

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NOTE 8 February 2024: India lifting its ban on exporting broken rice, which was already in place when its ban on exporting non-basmati white rice went into effect, will not count.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 7.29% -1.53% -3.18% -4.59%
No 92.71% +1.53% +3.18% +4.59%

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