Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Iran and those of Pakistan resulting in two or more fatalities before 1 January 2025?

Started Jan 26, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Iran and Pakistan trades missile strikes against putative militant targets in each other's territory in January 2024, stoking fears of yet another destabilizing situation in the region (ABC News, Al Jazeera, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count, and the fatalities must be the result of the same lethal confrontation to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 22.64% +3.20% +2.60% -1.13%
No 77.36% -3.20% -2.60% +1.13%

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