Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of the vote will the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, or AUR) party list win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closing Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The right-wing AUR has gained popularity in Romania to the consternation of pro-EU observers (Euronews, Antena 3 CNN [in Romanian], Romania Insider, AUD). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. If AUR merges with another party, that new party will count. The question will be suspended on 8 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 9 June 2024 (EU Elections). There are a total of 33 Romanian seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 12.0% | 1.00% | -0.50% | -0.70% | -1.40% |
| At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0% | 16.40% | -0.40% | -1.70% | -9.20% |
| At least 18.0%, but less than 24.0% | 64.20% | +1.90% | +3.00% | +11.70% |
| At least 24.0%, but less than 30.0% | 15.50% | -1.00% | -0.60% | -0.80% |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 36.0% | 2.50% | 0% | 0% | -0.30% |
| 36.0% or more | 0.40% | 0% | 0% | 0% |