Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What percentage of the vote will the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, or AUR) party list win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?
Closed Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The right-wing AUR has gained popularity in Romania to the consternation of pro-EU observers (Euronews, Antena 3 CNN [in Romanian], Romania Insider, AUD). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. If AUR merges with another party, that new party will count. The question will be suspended on 8 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 9 June 2024 (EU Elections). There are a total of 33 Romanian seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament).
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The question closed "At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0%" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 12.0% | 8% | |
| At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0% | 30% | |
| At least 18.0%, but less than 24.0% | 53% | |
| At least 24.0%, but less than 30.0% | 7% | |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 36.0% | 1% | |
| 36.0% or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 19 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 200 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 79 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 571 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
