Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of the vote will the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (Alianța pentru Unirea Românilor, or AUR) party list win in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections?

Started Feb 02, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 09, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The right-wing AUR has gained popularity in Romania to the consternation of pro-EU observers (Euronews, Antena 3 CNN [in Romanian], Romania Insider, AUD). In the event of the renaming of a political group or its fragmentation into two or more parties, further instructions will be provided. If AUR merges with another party, that new party will count. The question will be suspended on 8 June 2024, with the elections scheduled for 9 June 2024 (EU Elections). There are a total of 33 Romanian seats up in the 2024 EP elections (European Parliament).

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The question closed "At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0%" with a closing date of 9 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 12.0% 8%
At least 12.0%, but less than 18.0% 30%
At least 18.0%, but less than 24.0% 53%
At least 24.0%, but less than 30.0% 7%
At least 30.0%, but less than 36.0% 1%
36.0% or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 79
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.231387
2.
-0.184222
3.
-0.10284
4.
-0.068066
5.
-0.027012

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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