Oiram18 asks:

Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in and around Manipur, India, due to violent conflict events, according to ACLED?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Ethnic and religious violence broke out in the Indian state of Manipur among different groups in May 2023 and has continued as varying levels ever since (BBC, Economic Times, The Wire (India), Al Jazeera). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select "Manipur," "Mizoram," and "Nagaland" in "India" under "South Asia," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." Data will be accessed for resolution on 23 July 2024 unless there is a delay in updating data. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 155 total fatalities in the first half of 2023 (79 attributed to "Battles," 36 attributed to "Riots," 33 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 5 related to "Protests," 2 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," and none attributed to "Strategic Developments").

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 50 0.30% -1.00% -1.00%
At least 50, but fewer than 100 16.30% -0.40% -0.20%
At least 100, but fewer than 200 64.70% -1.20% -1.40%
At least 200, but fewer than 400 15.70% +1.70% +1.90%
400 or more 3.00% +0.90% +0.70%

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