Oiram18 asks:

Between 1 January 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in and around Manipur, India, due to violent conflict events, according to ACLED?

Started Feb 09, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Ethnic and religious violence broke out in the Indian state of Manipur among different groups in May 2023 and has continued as varying levels ever since (BBC, Economic Times, The Wire (India), Al Jazeera). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select "Manipur," "Mizoram," and "Nagaland" in "India" under "South Asia," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Click "EVENT COUNT" above the chart and change the selection to "FATALITIES." Data will be accessed for resolution on 23 July 2024 unless there is a delay in updating data. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 155 total fatalities in the first half of 2023 (79 attributed to "Battles," 36 attributed to "Riots," 33 attributed to "Violence against civilians," 5 related to "Protests," 2 attributed to "Explosions/Remote violence," and none attributed to "Strategic Developments").

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NOTE 10 June 2024: ACLED has retired its Dashboard and replaced it with ACLED Explorer. It functions similarly to the Dashboard and the same elements are available for setting parameters.


The question closed "At least 50, but fewer than 100" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 50 4%
At least 50, but fewer than 100 94%
At least 100, but fewer than 200 2%
At least 200, but fewer than 400 0%
400 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 200
Number of Forecasts 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 571
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.103144
2.
-0.095866
3.
-0.089241
4.
-0.0763
5.
-0.01837

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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