What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
US inflation in January 2024 rose more than analysts expected, potentially lengthening the path to the Federal Reserve's target of 2% (CNBC, Investopedia - CPI). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for June 2024 as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All items" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in July 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the change for June 2023 was 3.05326%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Up by between 2.400% and 3.000%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Up by less than 1.200% or down | 0% | |
| Up by between 1.200% and 1.800%, inclusive | 0% | |
| Up by more than 1.800% but less than 2.400% | 0% | |
| Up by between 2.400% and 3.000%, inclusive | 10% | |
| Up by more than 3.000% but less than 3.600% | 88% | |
| Up by between 3.600% and 4.200%, inclusive | 2% | |
| Up by more than 4.200% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 185 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 292 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 538 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
