Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Poland publicly announce that it has joined or is joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) before 9 November 2024?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 09, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In February 2024, Greece and Turkey announced that they would join the German-led ESSI, an initiative to increase air defense capabilities in Europe in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Defense News, Deutsche Welle, NATO). A public announcement, letter of intent, or similar instrument would count, though a conditional announcement (e.g., Poland would join if country X does A, B, and C) alone would not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 83.77% +2.62% +3.69% +6.69%
No 16.23% -2.62% -3.69% -6.69%

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