Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will Poland publicly announce that it has joined or is joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) before 9 November 2024?
Closed May 20, 2024 04:00PM UTC
In February 2024, Greece and Turkey announced that they would join the German-led ESSI, an initiative to increase air defense capabilities in Europe in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Defense News, Deutsche Welle, NATO). A public announcement, letter of intent, or similar instrument would count, though a conditional announcement (e.g., Poland would join if country X does A, B, and C) alone would not count.
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NOTE 11 July 2024: The approval of a declaration of accession like what Switzerland did in April 2024 will count (e.g., Switzerland Federal Council).
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 May 2024. The question did not close as of Tusk's aspirational comments in April 2024, but rather additional, substantive actions taken in May 2024 (Polska Agencja Prasowa).
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 81% | |
No | 19% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 38 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 190 | |
Number of Forecasts | 196 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 548 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |