Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Poland publicly announce that it has joined or is joining the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI) before 9 November 2024?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 20, 2024 04:00PM UTC

In February 2024, Greece and Turkey announced that they would join the German-led ESSI, an initiative to increase air defense capabilities in Europe in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Defense News, Deutsche Welle, NATO). A public announcement, letter of intent, or similar instrument would count, though a conditional announcement (e.g., Poland would join if country X does A, B, and C) alone would not count.

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NOTE 11 July 2024: The approval of a declaration of accession like what Switzerland did in April 2024 will count (e.g., Switzerland Federal Council).


The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 May 2024. The question did not close as of Tusk's aspirational comments in April 2024, but rather additional, substantive actions taken in May 2024 (Polska Agencja Prasowa).

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 81%
No 19%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions older than 6 months: 190
Number of Forecasts 196
Average for questions older than 6 months: 548
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.272477
4.
-0.26326
5.
-0.214764

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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