Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

As of 15 April 2024, how many members of the Alliance of Sahel States (AoSS) will have notice in place that they wish to leave the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)?

Started Mar 08, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC

On 28 January 2024, AoSS members Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced they were withdrawing immediately from ECOWAS, though the ECOWAS treaty states that a member state must give one year's notice before withdrawal (Al Jazeera, BBC, ECOWAS Treaty, see Article 91). For the purposes of this question, the AoSS members are considered to be ECOWAS member states, and any renouncement of their putative leaving in January 2024 so as to remove the notice that they wish to leave ECOWAS will count as that state or states no longer having notice in place (ECOWAS - Final Communique 24 February 2024).

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The question closed "3" with a closing date of 16 April 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 1%
1 4%
2 3%
3 93%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 23
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 145
Number of Forecasts 68
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 326
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.012718
4.
-0.005513
5.
-0.00402

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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