Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Between 1 March 2024 and 30 June 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Sudan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
In April 2023, fighting erupted between the When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for control of the country, and fighting has continued ever since (CNN, Vox, CBS News). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Dashboard (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) set the "EVENT DATE" range as appropriate, (2) for "EVENT TYPE, select all, (3) for "REGION," select only "Sudan" under "Northern Africa," (4) for "FATALITIES," leave all boxes unchecked, (5) for "ACTOR TYPE," select all, (6) for "INTERACTION," select all, and click "APPLY FILTERS." Totals for "EVENTS" and "FATALITIES" will appear above the map. As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 13,040 total fatalities in Sudan between 1 April 2023 and 31 December 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1,500 | 2.50% | 0% | 0% | -5.70% |
| At least 1,500, but fewer than 3,000 | 59.50% | +1.20% | +15.50% | +20.10% |
| At least 3,000, but fewer than 4,500 | 28.80% | +0.40% | -3.40% | +5.50% |
| At least 4,500, but fewer than 6,000 | 6.00% | -1.30% | -1.20% | -5.70% |
| At least 6,000, but fewer than 8,000 | 2.20% | -0.10% | -0.40% | -8.20% |
| At least 8,000, but fewer than 10,000 | 0.50% | -0.10% | -2.20% | -4.90% |
| 10,000 or more | 0.50% | -0.10% | -8.30% | -1.10% |