When will Egypt officially allow Palestinian refugees from the Gaza Strip who are not foreign nationals of a UN member state to enter Egypt?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Sep 10, 2024 07:01AM UTC

As Israel's offensive in Gaza focuses in the south of Gaza near the Egyptian border, concerns grow and contingencies are being considered for a potential refugee crisis (Yahoo, NPR, US News & World Report). Opening its border for individualized circumstances (e.g., medical evacuations, employees of specific organizations, family members of particular persons) alone would not count. Allowing refugees to enter Egypt in order to continue on to a different location would count. An announcement alone without evidence that Palestinians have actually crossed into Egypt would not count, and allowing refugees who entered Egypt from Gaza without authorization to stay or go on to another location would not count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 13 May 2024 0% 0% 0% -0.30%
Between 13 May 2024 and 11 July 2024 0% 0% -1.00% -1.55%
Between 12 July 2024 and 9 September 2024 1.00% 0% -1.00% -1.75%
Not before 10 September 2024 99.00% 0% +2.00% +3.60%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username