When will the European Central Bank (ECB) announce a reduction to its "Deposit facility" interest rate?

Started Mar 15, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2024 12:15PM UTC

As eurozone inflation eases, markets are anticipating an interest rate cut from the ECB in 2024 (AP, US News & World Report, ECB - Key ECB Interest Rates). As of the launch of this question, the Governing Council of the ECB had six remaining monetary policy meetings scheduled for 2024: 11 April, 6 June, 18 July, 12 September, 17 October, and 12 December (ECB - Calendar). The date the change would take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Between 12 April 2024 and 6 June 2024" with a closing date of 6 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 12 April 2024 0%
Between 12 April 2024 and 6 June 2024 82%
Between 7 June 2024 and 18 July 2024 5%
Between 19 July 2024 and 12 September 2024 5%
Between 13 September 2024 and 17 October 2024 4%
Between 18 October 2024 and 12 December 2024 2%
Not before 13 December 2024 2%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 65
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 448
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.038521
2.
-0.032947
3.
-0.030549
4.
-0.016824
5.
-0.01537

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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