What percentage of US credit card balances will be in serious delinquency in the second quarter of 2024?
Closed Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Credit card debt reached a record $1.13 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the percentage of that debt moving into "serious delinquency" (i.e., 90 or more days delinquent) up 59% versus the fourth quarter of 2022 (New York Fed, ABC News, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) in its Q2 2024 Household Debt and Credit Report, expected in August 2024 (New York Fed, click "DOWNLOADS" and select "DATA" to download the file). In its Q4 2023 report (see the "CC" column in the "Page 12 Data" sheet), the NY Fed reported the "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent" for credit cards at 9.74%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 10.5%, but less than 11.5%" with a closing date of 1 July 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Less than 8.5% | 1% | |
At least 8.5%, but less than 9.5% | 13% | |
At least 9.5%, but less than 10.5% | 60% | |
At least 10.5%, but less than 11.5% | 24% | |
At least 11.5%, but less than 12.5% | 2% | |
12.5% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 36 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 195 | |
Number of Forecasts | 105 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 559 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |