What percentage of US credit card balances will be in serious delinquency in the second quarter of 2024?

Started Mar 22, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Credit card debt reached a record $1.13 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the percentage of that debt moving into "serious delinquency" (i.e., 90 or more days delinquent) up 59% versus the fourth quarter of 2022 (New York Fed, ABC News, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) in its Q2 2024 Household Debt and Credit Report, expected in August 2024 (New York Fed, click "DOWNLOADS" and select "DATA" to download the file). In its Q4 2023 report (see the "CC" column in the "Page 12 Data" sheet), the NY Fed reported the "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent" for credit cards at 9.74%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 8.5% 0% 0% 0% -1.00%
At least 8.5%, but less than 9.5% 17.00% -1.00% -4.00% -7.00%
At least 9.5%, but less than 10.5% 53.00% 0% -1.00% +2.00%
At least 10.5%, but less than 11.5% 20.00% +1.00% +4.00% +6.00%
At least 11.5%, but less than 12.5% 4.00% 0% +1.00% 0%
12.5% or more 6.00% 0% 0% 0%

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