Before 13 June 2024, will the Federal Reserve announce a change in the total cap of assets that run off its balance sheet each month?

Started Mar 22, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2024 06:00PM UTC

While the Federal Reserve last raised the federal funds target range in the summer of 2023, it has continued to reduce the level of assets on its balance sheet as part of its program of monetary "quantitative tightening" in its efforts to combat inflation (New York Fed, Investopedia, Wolf Street, Yahoo, Congressional Research Service). The outcome will be determined using information in the statements and implementation notes release by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) (Federal Reserve - FOMC Meeting Calendar). As of the launch of this question, the total cap of assets was $95 billion each month, $60 billion in Treasury securities and $35 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) (Federal Reserve - Implementation Note 20 March 2024). A change in the amounts for Treasury securities and MBS that results in no net change from the total $95 billion will not count, and the date the change will take effect is immaterial.

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The question closed "Yes, it will decrease the total cap" with a closing date of 1 May 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, it will increase the total cap 11%
Yes, it will decrease the total cap 54%
No 35%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 144
Number of Forecasts 46
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 325
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.511523
2.
-0.498248
3.
-0.468747
4.
-0.228215
5.
-0.208723

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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