What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for October 2024?
Closing Nov 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The US unemployment rate has remained near historic lows in early 2024, but cracks are appearing in the labor market (CNBC, MSN). The question will be suspended on 31 October 2024 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS') official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database when first released (FRED). The October 2024 rate is scheduled to be released on 1 November 2024, the Friday before the US elections scheduled for 5 November 2024 (BLS - Release Schedule).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.8% | 40.00% | +3.12% | +3.12% |
| At least 3.8%, but less than 4.1% | 31.00% | -1.63% | -1.25% |
| At least 4.1%, but less than 4.4% | 18.00% | -0.69% | -0.25% |
| At least 4.4%, but less than 4.7% | 5.00% | -0.44% | -0.69% |
| At least 4.7%, but less than 5.0% | 3.00% | +0.12% | -0.19% |
| At least 5.0%, but less than 5.3% | 2.00% | +0.19% | +0.06% |
| At least 5.3%, but less than 5.6% | 1.00% | -0.06% | -0.13% |
| 5.6% or more | 0% | -0.63% | -0.69% |