Foxes ask:
What will be the percentage of Irish national parliament voting intention for Sinn Féin (SF) as of 25 October 2024, according to Politico?
Closing Oct 25, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Sinn Féin, a left-wing, staunchly nationalist Irish political party, is leading in polls as the current coalition government replaces its prime minister with elections due by March 2025 (Politico, Yahoo, Sinn Féin). The question will be suspended on 24 October 2024 and the outcome determined using data as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Ireland no earlier than 31 October 2024 (Politico - Ireland Poll of Polls, use default "Smooth" view). Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 20% | 2.80% | -0.10% | +0.40% |
| At least 20%, but less than 25% | 22.20% | 0% | +5.60% |
| At least 25%, but less than 30% | 42.60% | +0.10% | -5.10% |
| At least 30%, but less than 35% | 17.60% | 0% | -0.60% |
| 35% or more | 14.80% | 0% | -0.30% |