UBS asks:
What will be the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy (aka "Core") for July 2024?
Closing Aug 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
While the US inflation rate has come down from its peak in 2022, the pace of progress toward the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target has slowed (CNBC, Yahoo, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 July 2024 and the outcome determined using the 12-month percentage change for July 2024 when first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All Items Less Food and Energy" as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in August 2024 (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago"). As of the launch of this question, the change for July 2023 was 4.70760%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Up by less than 2.000% or down | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Up by at least 2.000%, but less than 2.400% | 0% | 0% | -2.00% |
| Up by at least 2.400%, but less than 2.800% | 1.00% | +0.92% | -2.00% |
| Up by at least 2.800%, but less than 3.200% | 4.00% | +0.83% | -8.00% |
| Up by at least 3.200%, but less than 3.600% | 39.00% | 0% | +7.00% |
| Up by at least 3.600%, but less than 4.000% | 52.00% | -1.25% | +10.00% |
| Up by at least 4.000%, but less than 4.400% | 4.00% | -0.50% | -4.00% |
| Up by 4.400% or more | 0% | 0% | -1.00% |