Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Chad join the Alliance of Sahel States ("L'Alliance des États du Sahel" in French, or AES) before 1 October 2024?

Started Apr 19, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger formed the AES in September 2023 as a mutual defense pact among the military-controlled countries (France 24, AP). Chad and Mauritania took steps in December 2023 to dissolve an older security alliance, the G5 Sahel, after Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger withdrew from that group (Al Jazeera, Critical Threats). A public announcement from the government of Chad that it has joined the AES will count. Chad signing an instrument of membership to the AES will count, irrespective of when Chad's membership would take effect. Some form of subordinate membership (e.g., observer status) will not count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Yes 43.90% -0.60% +4.30%
No 56.10% +0.60% -4.30%

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