UBS asks:
How many transit calls will the Panama Canal have between and including 15 July 2024 and 14 August 2024, according to the IMF?
Closed Aug 15, 2024 07:01AM UTC
After drought forced a reduction in traffic through the Panama Canal, rising reservoir levels have led the Panama Canal Authority to plan increases in daily transits (Voice of America, Maritime Executive). The question will be suspended on 14 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options). Between and including 15 July 2023 and 14 August 2023, the Panama Canal had 1,084 transit calls.
This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "At least 750, but fewer than 825" with a closing date of 15 August 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 750 | 0% | |
| At least 750, but fewer than 825 | 82% | |
| At least 825, but fewer than 900 | 18% | |
| At least 900, but fewer than 975 | 0% | |
| At least 975 but fewer than 1,050 | 0% | |
| 1,050 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 34 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 166 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 224 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 435 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
