Before 5 November 2024, will daily transit calls for the Strait of Hormuz be below 25 for two consecutive days, according to the IMF?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As tensions between Iran and various actors remain high, there is fear that it could attempt to halt critical energy shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the IMF's PortWatch (PortWatch, see "Transit Calls" chart, which includes export options). As of the launch of this question, PortWatch reported the lowest number of transit calls for a single day at 13 on 12 May 2022, though there were 107 on 11 May 2022 and 92 on 13 May 2022. A static file with data for 1 January 2019 to 23 April 2024 may be downloaded here: xlsx Download.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 11.00% +3.50% +3.00% -0.10%
No 89.00% -3.50% -3.00% +0.10%

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