Before 1 December 2024, will Russia or Belarus detonate a nuclear device outside of Russian and Belarusian territory or airspace?

Started May 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Dec 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

As Ukraine continues to fight against Russia's invasion of their country and increases attacks in Russia itself, concerns persist that Russia could resort to using nuclear weapons (AP, Newsweek, CBS News). Russian and Belarusian territory and airspace include that within the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including territorial waters. For the purposes of this question, a "nuclear device" is one that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion utilizing the fission and/or fusion of nuclear fuel (e.g., Uranium-235, lithium deuteride). A radiological device (aka "dirty bomb") would not count (Nuclear Regulatory Commission). A device that produces an explosive detonation for a sub-critical test is not considered a "nuclear device" that is designed to produce a nuclear explosion.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 3.00% 0% +1.00% -2.81%
No 97.00% 0% -1.00% +2.81%

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