UBS asks:

What will be the closing value of the US dollar to new Israeli shekel exchange rate on 16 August 2024?

Started May 16, 2024 02:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 16, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The new Israeli shekel has recovered from multiyear low in the wake of Hamas' attack in the country, but the war is still weighing heavily on the Israeli economy (Yahoo [Bloomberg], US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 15 August 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported in the US by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, set to "6M"). On 9 May 2024, the closing value was 3.72295.

This question is part of the 2024 UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "At least 3.60, but less than 3.80" with a closing date of 16 August 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 3.20 1%
At least 3.20, but less than 3.40 0%
At least 3.40, but less than 3.60 2%
At least 3.60, but less than 3.80 94%
At least 3.80, but less than 4.00 3%
At least 4.00, but less than 4.20 0%
4.20 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 37
Average for questions older than 6 months: 190
Number of Forecasts 217
Average for questions older than 6 months: 548
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.040788
2.
-0.028616
3.
-0.028018
4.
-0.022426
5.
-0.02242

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username