What will be the net change in China's coal-fired power capacity (Gigawatts, or GW) in 2024 as compared to 2023, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM)?

Started May 24, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

While China has greatly increased its renewable energy generation capacity, the country is still expanding its coal-fired power capacity (CNN, Carbon Brief). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by GEM (GEM). On the dashboard page, change "Select a country or region" to "China," see the "How much coal capacity has been added and retired?" chart, and click "Download annual capacity change data" for an xlsx file with the data). As of the launch of this question, the net change for China in 2023 as compared to 2022 was an increase of 43.706GW.

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The question closed "An increase of at least 10GW, but less than 30GW" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
An increase of less than 10GW or a decrease 1%
An increase of at least 10GW, but less than 30GW 80%
An increase of at least 30GW, but less than 50GW 18%
An increase of at least 50GW, but less than 70GW 1%
An increase of at least 70GW, but less than 90GW 0%
An increase of 90GW or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 24
Average for questions older than 6 months: 184
Number of Forecasts 140
Average for questions older than 6 months: 534
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.117058
2.
-0.072336
3.
-0.060786
4.
-0.052814
5.
-0.046933

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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