What will be the net change in the United States' coal-fired power capacity (Gigawatts, or GW) in 2024 as compared to 2023, according to Global Energy Monitor (GEM)?

Started May 24, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

The US has reduced its reliance on coal for power generation, which has raised concerns over adequate electricity supplies (Yahoo [Oil Price], E&E News). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by GEM (GEM). On the dashboard page, change "Select a country or region" to "United States," see the "How much coal capacity has been added and retired?" chart, and click "Download annual capacity change data" for an xlsx file with the data). As of the launch of this question, the net change for the US in 2023 as compared to 2022 was a decrease of 9.653GW.

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The question closed "A decrease of more than 0GW, but at most 5GW" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
A decrease of more than 20GW 1%
A decrease of more than 15GW, but at most 20GW 1%
A decrease of more than 10GW, but at most 15GW 1%
A decrease of more than 5GW, but at most 10GW 3%
A decrease of more than 0GW, but at most 5GW 95%
No change or an increase 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 21
Average for questions older than 6 months: 184
Number of Forecasts 91
Average for questions older than 6 months: 534
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.024107
2.
-0.023379
3.
-0.021315
4.
-0.021108
5.
-0.018835

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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