Will there be a shutdown of the US federal government before 1 January 2025?

Started Jul 05, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

As of the launch of this question, appropriations for the federal government are due to expire at midnight on 1 October 2024, the beginning of the 2025 fiscal year (The Hill, Congressional Research Service, NPR). For the purposes of this question, a "shutdown of the US federal government" would mean a ceasing of operations due to a lack of funding appropriation. A partial shutdown will count (Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 9%
No 91%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 419
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.011839
3.
-0.011839
4.
-0.011716
5.
-0.011716

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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