Between 1 July 2024 and 31 December 2024, how many total fatalities will occur in Myanmar due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?

Started Jul 12, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Myanmar has been gripped by civil war since its most recent military coup in 2021 (AP, PBS, Deutsche Welle). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Asia-Pacific," (5) select only "Myanmar," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 7,825 total fatalities in Myanmar in the first half (1 January through 30 June) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 January 2025.

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The question closed "At least 9,000, but fewer than 10,500" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4,500 1%
At least 4,500, but fewer than 6,000 1%
At least 6,000, but fewer than 7,500 1%
At least 7,500, but fewer than 9,000 10%
At least 9,000, but fewer than 10,500 86%
At least 10,500, but fewer than 12,000 1%
At least 12,000, but fewer than 13,500 1%
13,500 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 16
Average for questions older than 6 months: 184
Number of Forecasts 132
Average for questions older than 6 months: 534
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.077511
2.
-0.053459
3.
-0.047144
4.
-0.041696
5.
-0.024996

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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