ALabinsky asks:

How many twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of cargo will move by rail between China and Europe in the second half of 2024, according to the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index?

Started Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

As attacks against shipping off the coast of Yemen continue, there has been an increase in rail traffic between Europe and China via Russia despite Russia's ongoing war with Ukraine (Financial Times, Al Mayadeen, Trans.info, New Silkroad Discovery). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Eurasian Rail Alliance Index for July 2024 through December 2024 once data for December 2024 are first available (Eurasian Rail Alliance Index). On the page, set "DIRECTION" to "All," "SECTION" to "Cargo," leave "DEPARTURE," "ARRIVAL," and "GOODS" set to "All," and change "PERIOD" to "Reporting period" for "Jul 2024" to "Dec 2024." In January 2024, 20,810 TEUs were moved. An xlsx file with monthly data going back to 2021 may be downloaded by clicking this link: (Europe-China Rail Data ERAI 13 August 2024.xlsx).

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The question closed "At least 168,000, but fewer than 192,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 144,000 0%
At least 144,000, but fewer than 168,000 0%
At least 168,000, but fewer than 192,000 4%
At least 192,000, but fewer than 216,000 96%
At least 216,000, but fewer than 240,000 0%
At least 240,000, but fewer than 264,000 0%
At least 264,000, but fewer than 288,000 0%
288,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 18
Average for questions older than 6 months: 183
Number of Forecasts 123
Average for questions older than 6 months: 533
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.063327
2.
-0.062732
3.
-0.05465
4.
-0.051307
5.
-0.049338

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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