LucaM asks:

Which EU Member State's commissioner-designate will Ursula von der Leyen first nominate to be assigned the European Commission's (EC's) Directorate-General for Climate Action?

Started Aug 16, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 17, 2024 07:10AM UTC

After being reelected by the European Parliament (EP) to again lead the EC, Ursula von der Leyen is tasked with assigning commissioners from all EU Member States with certain responsibilities, sometimes called portfolios (European Commission, Euronews, Politico - 25 July 2024, Politico - 23 May 2024, Climate Action Directorate-General). In 2019, she introduced her proposed team in September (European Commission - Press Release 10 September 2019, Politico). Whether the EP gives its consent to the commissioner is immaterial. If von der Leyen doesn't nominate a commissioner-designate before1 November 2024, the close date will be extended. If von der Leyen ceases to be the president-elect of the EC, the nomination by her replacement will count.

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The question closed "Netherlands" with a closing date of 17 September 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Austria 1%
Belgium 1%
Bulgaria 0%
Croatia 0%
Czechia 1%
Denmark 39%
Estonia 0%
Finland 0%
France 1%
Germany 4%
Greece 1%
Hungary 1%
Ireland 1%
Italy 1%
Latvia 1%
Lithuania 1%
Netherlands 8%
Poland 0%
Portugal 1%
Romania 0%
Slovakia 1%
Slovenia 0%
Spain 28%
Sweden 12%
Cyprus, Luxembourg, or Malta 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 13
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 35
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 311
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.299123
2.
-0.234094
3.
-0.201732
4.
-0.174039
5.
-0.082561

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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