georgekegler asks:
When will Ukrainian regular ground armed forces cease to be in the internationally recognized territory of Russia?
Closed Feb 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region in August 2024, creating a major shift in the country's efforts to push Russian forces out of their country (AP, El País). For the purposes of this question, "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces). Whether Ukrainian regular forces have left Russia will be determined using open-source reporting and information published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). An official announcement from the Ukrainian government that its regular forces have left Russia will count.
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The question closed "Not before 19 February 2025" with a closing date of 19 February 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Before 22 October 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 22 October 2024 and 20 December 2024 | 0% | |
| Between 21 December 2024 and 18 February 2025 | 1% | |
| Not before 19 February 2025 | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 211 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 875 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |