georgekegler asks:

When will Ukrainian regular ground armed forces cease to be in the internationally recognized territory of Russia?

Started Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region in August 2024, creating a major shift in the country's efforts to push Russian forces out of their country (AP, El País). For the purposes of this question, "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces). Whether Ukrainian regular forces have left Russia will be determined using open-source reporting and information published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). An official announcement from the Ukrainian government that its regular forces have left Russia will count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 22 October 2024 3.00% 0% -1.60% -5.52%
Between 22 October 2024 and 20 December 2024 14.00% -1.00% -0.13% -6.48%
Between 21 December 2024 and 18 February 2025 14.00% +1.00% -2.37% -7.87%
Not before 19 February 2025 69.00% 0% +4.10% +19.87%

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