georgekegler asks:

When will Ukrainian regular ground armed forces cease to be in the internationally recognized territory of Russia?

Started Aug 23, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 19, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region in August 2024, creating a major shift in the country's efforts to push Russian forces out of their country (AP, El País). For the purposes of this question, "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces). Whether Ukrainian regular forces have left Russia will be determined using open-source reporting and information published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). An official announcement from the Ukrainian government that its regular forces have left Russia will count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Not before 19 February 2025" with a closing date of 19 February 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 22 October 2024 0%
Between 22 October 2024 and 20 December 2024 0%
Between 21 December 2024 and 18 February 2025 1%
Not before 19 February 2025 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 875
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.073181
3.
-0.072441
4.
-0.072375

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username