Will Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado be detained or arrested by Venezuelan authorities before 5 October 2024?
Closed Oct 05, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Machado has continued to push for protests against the Maduro government, which has reportedly ordered her arrest (BBC, CNN, MercoPress, El País). The duration of a detention or arrest is immaterial so long as Machado is in the custody (i.e., being physically held or controlled) of Venezuelan authorities for some period of time. An attempt to detain or arrest Machado that results in Machado's death will count.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 5 October 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 32 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 136 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 140 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 311 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
