What will be the spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and the 2-year Treasury yield on 7 March 2025?
Closed Mar 7, 2025 08:01AM (a month ago)
When interest rates on longer-term debt drop below rates on shorter-term debt, the yield curve is said to invert, which has often historically been a signal of an approaching recession (Investopedia - Yield Curve). The question will be suspended on 6 March 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database for "10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity" (FRED). For 7 March 2024, the spread was -0.41%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Higher than 0.30%, but at most 0.60%" with a closing date of 7 March 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| -0.60% or lower | 0% | |
| Higher than -0.60%, but at most -0.30% | 0% | |
| Higher than -0.30%, but at most 0.00% | 0% | |
| Higher than 0.00%, but at most 0.30% | 61% | |
| Higher than 0.30%, but at most 0.60% | 38% | |
| Higher than 0.60%, but at most 0.90% | 1% | |
| Higher than 0.90%, but at most 1.20% | 0% | |
| Higher than 1.20% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 33 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 180 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 270 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 526 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
