When will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles?

Started Sep 09, 2024 04:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 02, 2024 08:00AM UTC

As fighting in Gaza continues, concerns remain that there may be a major escalation of fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon (AP, BBC, France 24). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.

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The question closed "Before 17 October 2024" with a closing date of 2 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 17 October 2024 82%
Between 17 October 2024 and 23 November 2024 8%
Between 24 November 2024 and 31 December 2024 3%
Not before 1 January 2025 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 88
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 136
Number of Forecasts 304
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 311
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.807745
2.
-0.47973
3.
-0.479412
4.
-0.383171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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