Will Nicolás Maduro be inaugurated as President of Venezuela before 12 January 2025?

Started Sep 17, 2024 08:00AM UTC
Closing Jan 12, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Incumbent President Maduro was declared the winner of Venezuela's 2024 presidential election by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council on 29 July 2024 amid widespread claims of fraud (CBC, AP, NBC News). The Venezuelan constitution states, in part, that "the candidate elected shall take office as President of the Republic on January 10 of the first year of his constitutional term, by taking an oath before the National Assembly" (Constitution of Venezuela). If Maduro either flees the country or dies before being inaugurated (i.e., sworn in), the question will close "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 90.12% +0.05% +1.74% +3.67%
No 9.88% -0.05% -1.74% -3.67%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username