How many total federal firearm background checks will be initiated in the US in November 2024 and December 2024?

Started Sep 27, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges

Firearm sales in the US have fallen from record highs during the peak of the pandemic, which coincided with the 2020 presidential election (USA Today). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using data for November 2024 and December 2024 as reported by the FBI once December 2024 data are first available, expected in January 2025 (FBI). For November 2023 and December 2023, the FBI reported a total of 5,383,725 firearm background checks.

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NOTE 3 October 2024: The question description had indicated that there were 2,730,855 background checks in November and December 2023. That total only included December 2023. The combined total for November 2023 and December 2023 was 5,383,725, which has been revised above.


The question closed "At least 5,200,000, but fewer than 5,600,000" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 4,800,000 0%
At least 4,800,000, but fewer than 5,200,000 4%
At least 5,200,000, but fewer than 5,600,000 62%
At least 5,600,000, but fewer than 6,000,000 28%
At least 6,000,000, but fewer than 6,400,000 3%
At least 6,400,000, but fewer than 6,800,000 1%
At least 6,800,000, but fewer than 7,200,000 0%
At least 7,200,000, but fewer than 7,600,000 0%
At least 7,600,000, but fewer than 8,000,000 0%
8,000,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 158
Number of Forecasts 115
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 418
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.060075
2.
-0.033848
3.
-0.032503
4.
-0.015854
5.
-0.015478

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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