Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Taiwan and those of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The PRC has maintained its aggressive posture toward Taiwan in 2024 (CNN, Deutsche Welle, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as Forces, an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country will suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group would be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN). Cyberattacks alone will not count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 116
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 348
Average for questions older than 6 months: 474
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004964
4.
-0.004959

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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