Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel (Forces) of Taiwan and those of the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 1 October 2025?
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
The PRC has maintained its aggressive posture toward Taiwan in 2024 (CNN, Deutsche Welle, Newsweek). For the purposes of this question, a lethal confrontation is one that results in two or more fatalities among the Forces of both sides (total, not each). In the event of ambiguity as to the status of a party to a lethal confrontation as Forces, an accusation by a UN member state other than the PRC that a pertinent party to the lethal confrontation was Forces of the relevant country will suffice. If those involved from one side are a mixture of relevant forces and putatively civilian persons, the whole group would be considered to be part of the Forces (e.g., CNN). Cyberattacks alone will not count.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | |
| No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 116 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 348 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 474 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |