Started Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 29, 2017 05:00PM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Will legislation removing the individual mandate to purchase health insurance be signed before 30 April 2017?

The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. Republicans have tried to repeal the ACA many times since it was passed in 2010, but with control of Congress and the presidency they now have the opportunity to act on President-elect Trump's promise to repeal the individual mandate or ACA in its entirety (NPR, CNBC, CNN, The Bureau of National Affairs). The passage of legislation which prohibits the use of federal funds to enforce the provisions of the individual mandate would resolve the question as "yes" (Legal Information Institute). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.


If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on Rex Tillerson's Confirmation or on the U.S withdrawing from NAFTA. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1052
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 2503
Average for questions older than 6 months: 672
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.289
2.
-0.289
3.
-0.286
4.
-0.286
5.
-0.284

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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