Started Dec 27, 2016 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 30, 2017 06:59AM UTC

&nbsp The Monkey Cage asks

Before 30 April 2017, will the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA?

Throughout President-elect Trump's campaign, he labeled NAFTA the "worst trade deal in history" and has repeated a commitment to either negotiating better terms with Mexico and Canada or withdrawing (Forbes, Washington Post, The NAFTA Secretariat). Under Article 2205 of the agreement, a party can withdraw six months after providing notice (CNN, The NAFTA Secretariat) Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.

If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether the DAPA program will be implemented before inauguration day or on Trump's Immigration Ban. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 29 April 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.00%
No 98.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1161
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 2218
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username