How many of the largest commercial banks in the US will fail between 4 October 2024 and 6 October 2025?

Started Oct 04, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

As of the launch of this question, only one US bank had failed in 2024, but concerns about stresses facing some US banks continue (Investopedia, Yahoo [Reuters], Dallas Fed). The question will be suspended on 6 October 2025 and the outcome determined using data available from the Federal Reserve and open-source reporting. For the purposes of this question, "the largest commercial banks in the US" are those listed in the Federal Reserve's list of "Large Commercial Banks" as of 30 June 2024 (Federal Reserve - Large Commercial Banks, see "June 30, 2024"). A bank will be deemed to have failed if it files for bankruptcy, is taken over by the FDIC, or similar outcome (e.g., FDIC). The acquisition of a distressed bank by other institutions alone would not count (e.g., Federal Reserve - Wachovia).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "0" with a closing date of 7 October 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 96%
1 2%
2 or 3 1%
4 or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 160
Number of Forecasts 308
Average for questions older than 6 months: 475
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.046446
4.
-0.045977
5.
-0.045504

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username