Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2026?

Started Oct 21, 2024 07:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC

Over four years after a deadly clash in the Himalayas left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain as the two countries publicly seek de-escalation (BBC, CNBC-TV18, CNN). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. The confrontation and the fatality must both occur during the question's open period to count.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 16.00% 0% -0.03% -0.97%
No 84.00% 0% +0.03% +0.97%

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