When will there next be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States either in Iran or at sea?
Closing Nov 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
After two military exchanges between Iran and Israel in April and October 2024, ongoing fighting across the region, and standing fears of Iran's nuclear program, tensions in the Middle East are high (NPR, Newsweek, Middle East Monitor, Deutsche Welle). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces of either side. For the purposes of this question, Iran's national military forces include the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Law Enforcement Forces. A lethal confrontation taking place in Iranian airspace or international airspace over the sea would count, and a fatality must occur during the question's open period to count.
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Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
---|---|---|---|---|
Before 1 March 2025 | 6.00% | 0% | -0.89% | -1.25% |
Between 1 March 2025 and 30 June 2025 | 8.00% | 0% | +0.22% | +0.50% |
Between 1 July 2025 and 31 October 2025 | 10.00% | -1.00% | -0.94% | +2.25% |
Not before 1 November 2025 | 76.00% | +1.00% | +1.61% | -1.50% |